Stocks Rise as Investors Look Past Inflation and Tariffs

U.S. stocks gained ground on Friday, breaking a three-day losing streak, as investors shrugged off persistent inflation pressures and a fresh round of tariffs announced by President Trump.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7% (about 300 points), and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%.

The personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—showed inflation holding above the central bank’s 2% target last month. Still, the results matched expectations, easing fears of accelerating price pressures.

Markets continue to price in two more Fed rate cuts, expected in October and December, following last week’s 0.25-point reduction in the benchmark borrowing rate.

The Hidden Premium in Active Bond ETFs: Are You Paying Too Much?

Actively managed bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a surge in popularity as investors seek to navigate uncertain fixed-income markets. Currently, hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in taxable active bond ETFs, rivaling the assets held in active U.S. equity ETFs. However, a less discussed aspect of these investment vehicles is the potential for investors to pay a premium over the underlying value of the ETF's holdings, effectively increasing their cost of ownership. 

 

While both active and passive ETFs can trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV), research indicates that active bond ETFs exhibit significantly larger and more persistent premiums. This premium represents an additional expense for ETF investors compared to mutual funds, which are typically priced at NAV.

Wall Street Voices on Stock Market: Seven Market Experts Weigh In

The recent turbulence across U.S. equity and bond markets, significantly influenced by President Trump's tariff policies, has been a talking point from Wall Street to Washington. To understand the underlying issues and potential opportunities amidst this uncertainty, Barron's reportedly gathered the perspectives of seven prominent market professionals.

 

According to Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, the announcement of President Trump's tariffs on April 2nd acted as a catalyst, igniting pre-existing market sensitivities. Davis highlights three major transitions currently facing investors: the end of a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates, the shift from globalization towards nationalism and protectionism, and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. He contrasts the present market unease with the seemingly overly optimistic outlook that prevailed recently.

The Alarming Signals from the U.S. Bond Market

The market for U.S. Treasury bonds, a crucial component of the global financial system, has been "flashing a warning sign". The recent selloff in Treasuries, which moves inversely to yields, suggests a decline in global confidence in the U.S. economy itself. This development has caught Wall Street and Washington off guard.

 

Several factors make this bond market activity particularly concerning. Despite "subdued inflation, falling consumer confidence, and signs of a weakening economy," bond yields arguably should be decreasing. Instead, long-term Treasury yields have been elevated, with the 30-year yield nearing 5% and on track for its biggest weekly gain since 1987. This rise in yields puts pressure on the real economy by increasing the costs of business and consumer debt, including mortgages and car loans.

The Power of Broad Market Investing: Lessons from Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund

In the ever-evolving landscape of investment, the pursuit of substantial wealth creation often leads investors to explore various strategies and asset classes. However, the story of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund, which according to a Morningstar study referenced on page 14, created a staggering $1.15 trillion in new dollars for its investors, offers a compelling insight into the power of broad market investing.

This remarkable achievement underscores several key principles that can be valuable for investors of all levels.

• The Advantage of Diversification: The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund, as its name suggests, provides investors with exposure to a vast array of stocks across the entire US equity market. This inherent diversification helps to mitigate the risks associated with investing in individual companies or specific sectors. By holding a broad basket of stocks, investors can participate in the overall growth of the economy.

European Stocks for Investment Opportunities

After years of lagging behind the U.S. market, European equities are now capturing the attention of discerning investors seeking diversification and potential for significant returns. The recent performance speaks for itself: the Stoxx Europe 600 index has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly this year, marking the biggest outperformance in over two decades. This presents a compelling narrative for investors looking beyond traditional U.S.-centric portfolios.

Reasons Behind Europe's Resurgence:

Several factors are contributing to this renewed interest in European stocks:

• Political and Economic Sea Change: Europe is experiencing an early stage of a political and economic shift, providing a strong impetus for stocks. Newly elected governments are discussing deregulation to boost efficiency and reduce costs.
• Attractive Valuations: After years of underperformance, European companies, particularly smaller and mid-sized ones, still trade at their cheapest point versus large-caps in 20 years. This suggests significant value waiting to be unlocked.
• Shifting Investor Sentiment: An unprecedented amount of capital had previously flowed into U.S. equities while leaving Europe. However, recent trends indicate a slowdown in flows to the U.S. and a growing interest in reallocating to European markets, suggesting investors are starting to take profits off the U.S. table.
• U.S. Policy Uncertainty: Concerns surrounding the Trump administration's focus on deficits and bringing capital back to the U.S. are creating "friction" and making Europe look more favorable in comparison.
• Improved Economic Fundamentals: Troubled economies in southern Europe, once at the center of the sovereign debt crisis, are now thriving and leading the improvement in the region's earnings. European companies have also been active in stock buybacks, further supporting valuations.
• Europe's Own Tech Champions: Amid U.S. antagonism, Europe is motivated to seek digital independence, fostering the growth of its own technology stars.

Rethinking 2025: AI Stocks, Europe's Bull Market, and the Shifting Investment Landscape

This year could be more punishing than originally expected for U.S. stocks. Donald Trump’s seeming indifference to market selloffs is one reason. It’s no longer enough for him to simply point to the market as a bellwether of success, or even to worry about the uncertainty that the chaotic implementation of his policies is causing with businesses or the average American. Strike two.

Faced with economic disruptions that could boost inflation and hit growth simultaneously, the Fed has acted like a deer caught in some very bright headlights. A hot inflation reading in January had already put the central bank on hold, and even though the financial markets still reflect the possibility of rate cuts this year—CME’s FedWatch tool puts the odds of a rate cut by the June meeting at 57.6%—the talk out of the central bank is anything but dovish. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said this past week that increasing inflation expectations would be a “major red flag” for the Fed—one that would probably result in hikes, not cuts. Investors can no longer expect the Fed to cut simply because the “neutral rate” is too high; instead, it might take the possibility of a looming recession. Strike three.